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Heat

Output falls about 0.9% for each °F of panel heat on 26 clear days (likely −1.1% to −0.7%), about 5 times the 0.2% silicon loses, so most of it isn't heat and the evidence for heat alone is still weak.

Clear days, Jul 3 – Sep 27 · since the array reached its current size
Clear days26197 midday readings
Panel temperature117–155°FEstimated from air and sunlight
Fit0.44R²Share of the spread the line explains

Output per unit of sunlight · m²

  • 15-minute reading, clear day
  • Fitted
  • Typical silicon
1015202530110120130140150160Estimated panel temperature · °F

2 readings far outside the rest aren't drawn.

chevron_rightHow heat is measured

Silicon panels lose output as they heat up, typically about 0.4% per °C of cell temperature (0.2% per °F). This page checks whether that shows in this system's data. The dashed grey line is that typical loss drawn through the middle of the readings; the gold one is what the readings show.

Readings: the 15-minute readings between 10:00 and 15:00 on clear days since Jul 3 (when the array reached its current size), with at least 600 W/m² of sunlight at the station. A clear day is one whose 10:00–15:00 sunlight averaged at least 700 W/m². Output per unit of sunlight is solar_w ÷ solar_radiation_w_m2(effective m²).

Panel temperature isn't measured, so it's estimated with the NOCT model: T_panel = T_air + (NOCT − 20 °C) ÷ 800 × sunlight, NOCT 45 °C, about 1.8 °F hotter than the air for every 100 W/m². The slope is a least-squares line, stated as a share of the average output. Its likely range is a 95% interval from 1,000 resamples of whole days (readings on the same day share clouds and sun path, so they aren't independent), with a fixed seed so the page doesn't change between visits.

  • Sunlight and heat rise together, so anything else that grows with sunlight looks like a heat loss: the inverter clipping at its limit on the brightest readings, the sun's angle on the tilted panels against the flat sensor, and the Tempest reading hot in direct sun.
  • The panel temperature is a model, not a measurement; wind cools panels and isn't in it.
  • Under 5 clear days or 30 readings, the slope isn't stated.
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