A queue of months that look unusual or where data sources disagree. Save a reason and the month moves into Reviewed — your queue shrinks, the story stays.
PVWatts seasonal baseline × Tempest condition modifier (clear 1.0 · partly-cloudy 0.85 · overcast 0.6 · t-storms 0.5).
Trailing 12-month actual ÷ PVWatts annual projection. 100 = on model.
1 signal firing
Beating PVWatts model by 5%
Production is running above the projection — no action needed, just a tailwind to the break-even ETA.
anomaly threshold ≥ 2σ · mismatch threshold ≥ 10%
Triggered by anomalies (≥2σ from trailing 12-month average on home, bill, solar, or grid-import) or by Duke ↔ Powerwall delta over 10%. Newest first.
Every notable month has a reason on file. Nothing to do here.
click to expand
Notable months with a reason on file. Story persists even if the trigger keeps firing on later visits.
| Severity | Month | What triggered it | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| warning | Apr '26 | Solar production+2.1σ | other |
| critical | Sep '25 | Bill amount+6.0σ | ev load shift |
| warning | Jul '25 | Home consumption+2.4σ | seasonal |
| critical | Jul '24 | Home consumption-2.2σGrid import+5.8σ | equipment failure |
| critical | Jun '24 | Grid import+5.3σ | equipment failure |
| warning | May '24 | Grid import+2.6σ | equipment failure |
| warning | Feb '24 | Solar production+2.0σ | other |
| warning | Dec '23 | Bill amount-2.4σ | install |
| warning | Nov '23 | Bill amount-2.8σ | install |
| warning | Jun '23 | Home consumption+2.2σBill amount+2.2σ | other |
Where today’s home consumption went, by load. HVAC + Pool are runtime estimates (minutes active × kW from settings). “Other” is the remainder — appliances, lighting, idle draw.
Caveat: HVAC + pool are estimates from runtime minutes × the kW assumption. If “Other” goes negative on a day, the kW assumption is too high for that day’s actual mix (e.g. inverter-stage variation).
Long-term patterns across all 39 months on file. Different lens than year-over-year — these show seasonal shape, underlying trajectory, and system health.
Seasonal averages — month of year
Each bar is the average for that month across 4 years on file. Pre-solar baseline rows are excluded from the solar series.
Solar produced vs home consumed (avg per month)
Grid in / out (avg per month)
Rolling 12-month sums
Trailing-12-month total at each month — seasonality cancels, so the underlying trajectory shows. Watch for solar slowly drifting down (panel degradation, ~0.5%/yr), home creeping up (EV adoption, AC use), or savings accelerating after rate hikes.
Energy (kWh, trailing 12mo)
Money ($, trailing 12mo)
Capacity factor
solar_kwh / (system_size_dc × hours_in_period). Residential rooftop systems in warm climates typically run 15–20%. Sustained drift below that range is worth investigating (dirt, shade, inverter health). Will step up after the panel expansion lands and the system_size_dc assumption updates.
Year × month grid of solar production. Brighter cyan = more kWh that month. Empty cells are pre-install or future. Hover for the value.
| Year | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.5 MWh | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25.1 MWh | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | 28.8 MWh | ||||||||||||
| 2026 | 9.7 MWh |
Daily solar (kWh) against insolation measured at the local Tempest station (kWh/m²), last 60 days where both sources have data. A tight diagonal cluster = healthy panels. Outliers below the trend = underperformance worth investigating; outliers above = sensor calibration drift.
Pick a month to see solar / home / bill across every year on file as bar charts. Below, all months in pivot-table form.
Apr across years
all months · best year per row in primary
Solar production
| Month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | — | 1,700 kWh | 2,017 kWh | 2,083 kWh |
| Feb | — | 2,200 kWh | 1,932 kWh | 2,257 kWh |
| Mar | — | 2,500 kWh | 2,749 kWh | 2,381 kWh |
| Apr | — | 2,800 kWh | 3,011 kWh | 3,000 kWh |
| May | — | 2,100 kWh | 2,690 kWh | — |
| Jun | — | 2,300 kWh | 2,518 kWh | — |
| Jul | — | 710 kWh | 2,612 kWh | — |
| Aug | — | 2,500 kWh | 2,487 kWh | — |
| Sep | — | 2,200 kWh | 2,259 kWh | — |
| Oct | 548 kWh | 2,200 kWh | 2,385 kWh | — |
| Nov | 1,451 kWh | 2,100 kWh | 2,316 kWh | — |
| Dec | 1,494 kWh | 1,800 kWh | 1,811 kWh | — |
Home consumption
| Month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 649 kWh | 1,400 kWh | 1,927 kWh | 2,040 kWh |
| Feb | 1,715 kWh | 1,300 kWh | 1,435 kWh | 2,068 kWh |
| Mar | 1,811 kWh | 1,600 kWh | 1,776 kWh | 1,891 kWh |
| Apr | 2,049 kWh | 2,100 kWh | 2,521 kWh | 2,607 kWh |
| May | — | 2,600 kWh | 2,769 kWh | — |
| Jun | 2,722 kWh | 2,800 kWh | 2,832 kWh | — |
| Jul | 2,382 kWh | 950 kWh | 3,477 kWh | — |
| Aug | 2,697 kWh | 2,800 kWh | 3,191 kWh | — |
| Sep | 2,404 kWh | 2,500 kWh | 3,079 kWh | — |
| Oct | 2,767 kWh | 2,300 kWh | 2,603 kWh | — |
| Nov | 1,700 kWh | 2,000 kWh | 2,196 kWh | — |
| Dec | 1,600 kWh | 2,000 kWh | 1,966 kWh | — |
Bill amount
| Month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $132.77 | $35.70 | $67.91 | $42.21 |
| Feb | $353.34 | $35.70 | $28.53 | $35.91 |
| Mar | $346.86 | $35.70 | $35.71 | $35.91 |
| Apr | $409.77 | $35.72 | $35.71 | $35.91 |
| May | — | $35.70 | $35.71 | — |
| Jun | $546.79 | $35.70 | $35.71 | — |
| Jul | $477.56 | $59.59 | $35.71 | — |
| Aug | $541.69 | $155.46 | $109.64 | — |
| Sep | $482.92 | $70.76 | $189.87 | — |
| Oct | $445.19 | $65.25 | $131.99 | — |
| Nov | $80.80 | $62.92 | $35.71 | — |
| Dec | $17.01 | $35.70 | $75.30 | — |